Starter projections vs. the crowd
The site's starter projections for Duke, with the crowd's predictions alongside. After every game both are compared with what actually happened.
Grading starts with the first regular-season game. Exhibition numbers are shown for context only.
Starter projections vs. the crowd vs. actual
Points per game. "Crowd avg" is the average of every prediction for that player; "Projection − crowd" shows how far the starter projection sits from it.
| Player | Stat | Starter projection | Crowd avg | Projection − crowd | Actual | Diff | Abs. error | Exhibitions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Blackwell | PPG | 15.0 | … | … | — | — | — | 20.5 |
| Patrick Ngongba II | PPG | 14.5 | … | … | — | — | — | 20.5 |
| Minutes | 27 | — | — | — | — | — | 25.5 | |
| FGA | 8 | — | — | — | — | — | 9.0 | |
| Joaquim Boumtje Boumtje | PPG | 11.0 | … | … | — | — | — | 8.5 |
| Cayden Boozer | PPG | 9.0 | … | … | — | — | — | 4.0 |
| Caleb Foster | PPG | 8.2 | … | … | — | — | — | 2.0 |
| Dame Sarr | PPG | 6.0 | … | … | — | — | — | 13.5 |
| Deron Rippey Jr. | PPG | 6.0 | … | … | — | — | — | 12.0 |
| Drew Scharnowski | PPG | 2.2 | … | … | — | — | — | — |
| Cameron Williams | PPG | 2.0 | … | … | — | — | — | 1.0 |
| Sebastian Wilkins | PPG | 2.0 | … | … | — | — | — | 9.0 |
| Bryson Howard | PPG | 2.0 | … | … | — | — | — | 3.5 |
| Jacob Theodosiou | PPG | 1.9 | … | … | — | — | — | 3.0 |
| Maxime Meyer | PPG | 1.5 | … | … | — | — | — | 3.0 |
| Team total | PPG | 81.3 | … | … | — | — | — | 100.5 |
Team total = sum of the 13 projected players' PPG; the crowd total sums the crowd averages for the same players. Players without a starter projection: Arnold, Davis.
The crowd's predictions
Loading the crowd's predictions…
| Player | Starter projection | Crowd avg PPG | Predictions | Actual PPG | Crowd error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Blackwell | 15.0 | — | 0 | — | — |
| Dame Sarr | 6.0 | — | 0 | — | — |
| Patrick Ngongba II | 14.5 | — | 0 | — | — |
| Joaquim Boumtje Boumtje | 11.0 | — | 0 | — | — |
| Cayden Boozer | 9.0 | — | 0 | — | — |
| Deron Rippey Jr. | 6.0 | — | 0 | — | — |
| Sebastian Wilkins | 2.0 | — | 0 | — | — |
| Bryson Howard | 2.0 | — | 0 | — | — |
| Caleb Foster | 8.2 | — | 0 | — | — |
| Cameron Williams | 2.0 | — | 0 | — | — |
| Drew Scharnowski | 2.2 | — | 0 | — | — |
| Maxime Meyer | 1.5 | — | 0 | — | — |
| Jacob Theodosiou | 1.9 | — | 0 | — | — |
| Nick Arnold | — | — | 0 | — | — |
| Brock Davis | — | — | 0 | — | — |
Crowd error = |crowd average − actual PPG|, regular-season games only. Grading starts with the first regular-season game. Add your predictions →
All entries
Running pace
Cumulative points per game after each game. The dashed line is the starter projection. Hollow dots are exhibitions.
John Blackwell
Patrick Ngongba II
Joaquim Boumtje Boumtje
Cayden Boozer
Caleb Foster
Dame Sarr
Deron Rippey Jr.
Drew Scharnowski
Cameron Williams
Sebastian Wilkins
Bryson Howard
Jacob Theodosiou
Maxime Meyer
Grading rules
- Actuals use regular-season games only. Averages are per game played, the standard box-score convention; games a player misses are noted on the rotation page.
- Error is the absolute difference between the projection and the actual average, per player and averaged across players. The crowd average is graded the same way.
- "Starter projection" numbers are the site's own preseason numbers. Crowd numbers are the average of every prediction submitted on the predict page before the season opener.